A new report has warned
there's an existential risk to humanity from the climate crisis within the
coming decades, and a "high likelihood of human civilization coming to an
end" over the next three decades unless urgent action is taken.
The report, published by
Australian thinktank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration,
outlines an apocalyptic scenario that could see conditions "beyond the
threshold of human survivability" across much of our planet by 2050. Their
analysis calculates the existential climate-related security risk to Earth
through a scenario set 30 years into the future.
The report refuses to
downplay its bleak assessment of what could happen, warning of "an
existential risk to civilization [..] posing permanent large negative
consequences to humanity that may never be undone, either annihilating
intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtailing its potential."
The authors argue we are now
in a unique situation with no precise historical equivalent, with temperatures
unlike anything humanity has ever experienced, and a population of nearly 8
billion people. This requires us to work towards avoiding catastrophic
possibilities rather than looking at probabilities, as learning from mistakes
is not an option when it comes to existential risks.
With that in mind, they
propose a plausible and terrifying "2050 scenario" whereby humanity
could face irreversible collapse in just three decades. So, here goes:
2020-2030
Governments fail to act on
the evidence that the Paris Agreement isn't enough to keep Earth's temperature
from rising, and will "lock in at least 3°C of warming". As projectedby previous studies, carbon dioxide levels have reached 437 parts per million,
which hasn't been seen in the last 20 million years. The planet warms by 1.6°C
(2.8°F).
2030-2050
Emissions peak in 2030 and
are reduced. However, carbon cycle feedbacks and the continued use of fossil
fuels see temperatures rise by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2050.
2050
By 2050 there's a scientific
consensus that we reached the tipping point for ice sheets in Greenland and the
West Antarctic well before 2°C (3.6°F) of warming, and for widespread
permafrost at 2.5°C (4.5°F). A "Hothouse Earth" scenario plays out
that sees Earth's temperatures doomed to rise by a further 1°C (1.8°F) even if
we stopped emissions immediately.
At this point the human
impact is off the scale. Fifty-five percent of the global population are
subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions beyond that which
humans can survive. North America suffers extreme weather events including
wildfires, drought, and heatwaves. Monsoons in China fail, the great rivers of
Asia virtually dry up, and rainfall in central America falls by half.
Deadly heat conditions across
West Africa persist for over 100 days a year, and poorer countries are unable
to provide enough artificially-cooled environments for their populations to be
viable. Food production is severely affected, and inadequate to feed the global
population. More than a billion people are displaced.
The knock-on consequences
affect national security, as the scale of the challenges involved, such as
pandemic disease outbreaks, are overwhelming. Armed conflicts over resources
may become a reality, and have the potential to escalate into nuclear war.
In the worst case scenario, a
scale of destruction the authors say is beyond their capacity to model, there
is a "high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end".
With these horrific
possibilities in mind for our near future, the authors recommend nations
"urgently examine the role that the national security sector can play in
providing leadership and capacity for a near-term, society-wide, emergency
mobilization of labor and resources, of a scale unprecedented in peacetime, to
build a zero-emissions industrial system and draw down carbon to protect human
civilization."
It is doable. The most recent
IPCC report lays out a future if we limit global heating to 1.5°C instead of
the Paris Agreement's 2°C. There are ways we can prevent this future, we just
need to act now.
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